Regime study · 2m intraday bars · 20-SMA + 2% gaps

Run History

Every analysis you've run, newest first — same detail as the live run. Compare a ticker across dates to see whether its structure is stable or drifting.

2 runs logged across 2 tickers: NVDA, ORIC. Stored in markov_history.json — back that file up and your research log survives anything.

2026-07-242 tickers

Side by side

	bars	Trend U persist	Trend D persist	Chop persist	Up days	gap days	U→D	edge vs random	% time up
NVDA	6805	0.86	0.86	0.53	7.4	6	0.034	+0.45	41%
ORIC	6513	0.88	0.87	0.52	8.4	6	0.027	+0.46	42%

NVDA

2026-06-04 to 2026-07-24 · 6805 bars

Trend U 41%Trend D 40%Chop 18%

Trend U

7.4days

persist 0.86 vs 0.41 rand

Trend D

7.1days

persist 0.86 vs 0.40 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.53 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

6/ 6805

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.003	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.331
Trend U	0.001	0.003	0.862422	0.0395	0.10280
Trend D	0.001	0.000	0.0377	0.862354	0.11311
Chop	0.001	0.000	0.24300	0.23291	0.53662

ORIC

2026-06-04 to 2026-07-24 · 6513 bars

Trend U 42%Trend D 41%Chop 16%

Trend U

8.4days

persist 0.88 vs 0.42 rand

Trend D

7.7days

persist 0.87 vs 0.41 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

6/ 6513

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.003	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.003	0.000
Trend U	0.002	0.002	0.882422	0.0375	0.09250
Trend D	0.001	0.001	0.0381	0.872337	0.10264
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.23244	0.25270	0.52557