Regime study · 2y daily bars · 20-SMA + 5% gaps

Run History

Every analysis you've run, newest first — same detail as the live run. Compare a ticker across dates to see whether its structure is stable or drifting.

43 runs logged across 43 tickers: AAPL, ADM, AMAT, AMD, AVGO, BG, CC=F, CSX, CTVA, DE, DNUT, EWZ, GBX, HPE, HSY, KC=F, KDP, KO, LNN, MANH, MDLZ, MOS, MRVL, NSC, NSRGY, NTR, NVDA, ORIC, PLTR, SBUX, SOUN, SPY, TRN, TSM, UNP, VERI, VMI, VRT, VSTM, WAB, ZC=F, ZS=F, ZW=F. Stored in markov_history.json — back that file up and your research log survives anything.

2026-07-2443 tickers

Side by side

	bars	Trend U persist	Trend D persist	Chop persist	Up days	gap days	U→D	edge vs random	% time up
AAPL	482	0.92	0.85	0.64	11.8	4	0.012	+0.40	52%
ADM	482	0.84	0.80	0.48	6.3	3	0.044	+0.37	47%
AMAT	482	0.83	0.83	0.52	6.0	24	0.008	+0.34	50%
AMD	482	0.86	0.86	0.58	6.9	26	0.014	+0.39	46%
AVGO	482	0.87	0.81	0.51	7.7	16	0.013	+0.37	50%
BG	482	0.86	0.82	0.57	7.4	3	0.034	+0.43	43%
CC=F	484	0.78	0.87	0.49	4.6	21	0.030	+0.44	34%
CSX	482	0.91	0.90	0.51	10.9	2	0.033	+0.34	57%
CTVA	482	0.91	0.89	0.59	10.5	1	0.011	+0.36	55%
DE	482	0.83	0.77	0.52	5.8	2	0.079	+0.36	47%
DNUT	482	0.82	0.90	0.47	5.4	13	0.014	+0.53	29%
EWZ	482	0.94	0.89	0.64	17.2	1	0.013	+0.48	47%
GBX	482	0.87	0.84	0.56	7.7	5	0.024	+0.44	43%
HPE	482	0.88	0.82	0.50	8.0	14	0.016	+0.34	53%
HSY	482	0.84	0.90	0.54	6.3	2	0.031	+0.50	34%
KC=F	484	0.83	0.82	0.54	5.9	8	0.041	+0.43	40%
KDP	482	0.88	0.85	0.52	8.2	2	0.019	+0.45	43%
KO	482	0.84	0.81	0.42	6.1	2	0.041	+0.38	45%
LNN	482	0.87	0.82	0.55	7.5	5	0.014	+0.43	44%
MANH	482	0.83	0.84	0.43	6.0	7	0.043	+0.44	39%
MDLZ	482	0.85	0.90	0.52	6.9	0	0.047	+0.45	40%
MOS	482	0.82	0.85	0.49	5.5	5	0.040	+0.45	37%
MRVL	482	0.82	0.81	0.50	5.6	41	0.021	+0.32	50%
NSC	482	0.93	0.86	0.54	14.0	1	0.016	+0.41	52%
NSRGY	482	0.85	0.89	0.63	6.8	5	0.031	+0.46	40%
NTR	482	0.83	0.81	0.51	5.8	1	0.037	+0.38	45%
NVDA	482	0.87	0.78	0.56	7.7	8	0.022	+0.39	48%
ORIC	482	0.87	0.81	0.46	7.5	17	0.021	+0.48	39%
PLTR	482	0.88	0.82	0.52	8.3	20	0.008	+0.36	52%
SBUX	482	0.87	0.81	0.47	7.8	4	0.028	+0.35	52%
SOUN	482	0.78	0.76	0.61	4.5	36	0.026	+0.46	32%
SPY	482	0.92	0.83	0.48	12.1	0	0.022	+0.27	65%
TRN	482	0.87	0.87	0.57	7.9	4	0.009	+0.41	46%
TSM	482	0.89	0.84	0.49	9.5	12	0.007	+0.31	59%
UNP	482	0.90	0.84	0.60	10.2	4	0.015	+0.48	42%
VERI	482	0.73	0.88	0.55	3.7	33	0.016	+0.46	27%
VMI	482	0.90	0.83	0.47	9.6	6	0.007	+0.30	60%
VRT	482	0.90	0.78	0.52	9.6	27	0.011	+0.34	56%
VSTM	482	0.89	0.88	0.54	9.3	6	0.018	+0.43	47%
WAB	482	0.91	0.84	0.36	10.6	2	0.017	+0.29	62%
ZC=F	483	0.91	0.87	0.59	11.3	2	0.008	+0.42	50%
ZS=F	483	0.87	0.84	0.55	8.0	0	0.031	+0.41	46%
ZW=F	483	0.88	0.82	0.47	8.0	0	0.030	+0.46	42%

AAPL

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 52%Trend D 29%Chop 18%

Trend U

11.8days

persist 0.92 vs 0.52 rand

Trend D

6.7days

persist 0.85 vs 0.29 rand

Chop

2.8days

persist 0.64 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

4/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.501	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.92227	0.013	0.0718
Trend D	0.011	0.011	0.045	0.85120	0.1014
Chop	0.011	0.011	0.1715	0.1715	0.6456

ADM

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 1%Trend U 47%Trend D 33%Chop 20%

Trend U

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.47 rand

Trend D

5.1days

persist 0.80 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.48 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

3/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.331	0.672	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.84190	0.0410	0.1125
Trend D	0.000	0.012	0.035	0.80127	0.1524
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3331	0.1918	0.4845

AMAT

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 2%Trend U 50%Trend D 29%Chop 16%

Trend U

6.0days

persist 0.83 vs 0.49 rand

Trend D

6.0days

persist 0.83 vs 0.29 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

24/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.759	0.172	0.081
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.253	0.587	0.172
Trend U	0.049	0.037	0.83199	0.012	0.0922
Trend D	0.011	0.012	0.057	0.83116	0.0913
Chop	0.032	0.043	0.2520	0.1713	0.5241

AMD

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 3%Trend U 46%Trend D 35%Chop 13%

Trend U

6.9days

persist 0.86 vs 0.46 rand

Trend D

7.0days

persist 0.86 vs 0.35 rand

Chop

2.4days

persist 0.58 vs 0.13 rand

Gap days

26/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.091	0.000	0.647	0.182	0.091
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.274	0.609	0.132
Trend U	0.037	0.048	0.86190	0.013	0.0614
Trend D	0.012	0.046	0.046	0.86145	0.0610
Chop	0.021	0.021	0.2214	0.1711	0.5837

AVGO

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 2%Trend U 50%Trend D 30%Chop 17%

Trend U

7.7days

persist 0.87 vs 0.50 rand

Trend D

5.2days

persist 0.81 vs 0.31 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.51 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

16/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.676	0.111	0.222
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.866	0.141
Trend U	0.024	0.013	0.87207	0.013	0.0921
Trend D	0.034	0.012	0.057	0.81119	0.1015
Chop	0.011	0.032	0.2318	0.2318	0.5141

BG

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 43%Trend D 36%Chop 21%

Trend U

7.4days

persist 0.86 vs 0.43 rand

Trend D

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.36 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.57 vs 0.21 rand

Gap days

3/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.501
Trend U	0.000	0.011	0.86179	0.037	0.1020
Trend D	0.000	0.011	0.058	0.82140	0.1322
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2020	0.2222	0.5757

CC=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 484 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 2%Trend U 34%Trend D 45%Chop 16%

Trend U

4.6days

persist 0.78 vs 0.34 rand

Trend D

7.8days

persist 0.87 vs 0.45 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.49 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

21/ 484

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.182	0.091	0.465	0.182	0.091
Gap D	0.000	0.101	0.303	0.606	0.000
Trend U	0.035	0.023	0.78131	0.035	0.1423
Trend D	0.012	0.025	0.025	0.87190	0.0716
Chop	0.032	0.000	0.2922	0.2015	0.4938

CSX

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 57%Trend D 32%Chop 11%

Trend U

10.9days

persist 0.91 vs 0.56 rand

Trend D

9.6days

persist 0.90 vs 0.32 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.51 vs 0.11 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.012	0.000	0.91247	0.039	0.0514
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.035	0.90138	0.0711
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3619	0.137	0.5127

CTVA

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 0%Trend U 55%Trend D 27%Chop 18%

Trend U

10.5days

persist 0.91 vs 0.55 rand

Trend D

9.4days

persist 0.89 vs 0.27 rand

Chop

2.4days

persist 0.59 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.91238	0.013	0.0821
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.011	0.89118	0.1013
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2824	0.1311	0.5950

DE

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 47%Trend D 34%Chop 19%

Trend U

5.8days

persist 0.83 vs 0.47 rand

Trend D

4.4days

persist 0.77 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.001	0.001	0.83189	0.0818	0.0819
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.0712	0.77125	0.1525
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2825	0.2018	0.5246

DNUT

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 1%Trend U 29%Trend D 52%Chop 16%

Trend U

5.4days

persist 0.82 vs 0.29 rand

Trend D

10.0days

persist 0.90 vs 0.52 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.15 rand

Gap days

13/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.625	0.000	0.383
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.603	0.402
Trend U	0.023	0.023	0.82115	0.012	0.1318
Trend D	0.024	0.000	0.024	0.90226	0.0717
Chop	0.011	0.032	0.2116	0.2821	0.4736

EWZ

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 0%Trend U 47%Trend D 37%Chop 16%

Trend U

17.2days

persist 0.94 vs 0.47 rand

Trend D

9.0days

persist 0.89 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.8days

persist 0.64 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.94211	0.013	0.049
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.011	0.89159	0.1119
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.1612	0.2116	0.6449

GBX

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 43%Trend D 37%Chop 19%

Trend U

7.7days

persist 0.87 vs 0.43 rand

Trend D

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.56 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.004	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.024	0.000	0.87180	0.025	0.0918
Trend D	0.000	0.011	0.035	0.84149	0.1222
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2119	0.2321	0.5652

HPE

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 1%Trend U 53%Trend D 28%Chop 16%

Trend U

8.0days

persist 0.88 vs 0.54 rand

Trend D

5.6days

persist 0.82 vs 0.28 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.50 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

14/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.756	0.252	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.171	0.674	0.171
Trend U	0.026	0.012	0.88224	0.024	0.0820
Trend D	0.012	0.011	0.045	0.82111	0.1216
Chop	0.000	0.043	0.2821	0.1814	0.5038

HSY

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 34%Trend D 49%Chop 17%

Trend U

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.34 rand

Trend D

9.8days

persist 0.90 vs 0.49 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.54 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.501
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.011	0.000	0.84137	0.035	0.1220
Trend D	0.001	0.000	0.036	0.90210	0.0717
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2218	0.2420	0.5444

KC=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 484 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 40%Trend D 38%Chop 20%

Trend U

5.9days

persist 0.83 vs 0.40 rand

Trend D

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.54 vs 0.20 rand

Gap days

8/ 484

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.171	0.503	0.332	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.501
Trend U	0.024	0.011	0.83163	0.048	0.1020
Trend D	0.012	0.000	0.047	0.82150	0.1324
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2221	0.2423	0.5452

KDP

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 43%Trend D 39%Chop 18%

Trend U

8.2days

persist 0.88 vs 0.43 rand

Trend D

6.6days

persist 0.85 vs 0.38 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.011	0.011	0.88181	0.024	0.0919
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.035	0.85157	0.1223
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2018	0.2724	0.5246

KO

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 45%Trend D 37%Chop 17%

Trend U

6.1days

persist 0.84 vs 0.46 rand

Trend D

5.3days

persist 0.81 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

1.7days

persist 0.42 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.84183	0.049	0.1227
Trend D	0.011	0.011	0.0611	0.81145	0.1221
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2823	0.3024	0.4234

LNN

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 44%Trend D 33%Chop 22%

Trend U

7.5days

persist 0.87 vs 0.44 rand

Trend D

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.55 vs 0.21 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.331	0.000	0.672
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.011	0.000	0.87183	0.013	0.1124
Trend D	0.011	0.012	0.034	0.82130	0.1422
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2122	0.2425	0.5558

MANH

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 39%Trend D 43%Chop 16%

Trend U

6.0days

persist 0.83 vs 0.39 rand

Trend D

6.1days

persist 0.84 vs 0.43 rand

Chop

1.8days

persist 0.43 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

7/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.402	0.201	0.402
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.011	0.011	0.83155	0.048	0.1121
Trend D	0.013	0.011	0.048	0.84175	0.1022
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2721	0.2923	0.4334

MDLZ

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Trend U 40%Trend D 47%Chop 14%

Trend U

6.9days

persist 0.85 vs 0.40 rand

Trend D

9.8days

persist 0.90 vs 0.47 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.13 rand

Gap days

0/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.85164	0.059	0.1019
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.0410	0.90202	0.0613
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2717	0.2214	0.5233

MOS

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 1%Trend U 37%Trend D 44%Chop 18%

Trend U

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.37 rand

Trend D

6.6days

persist 0.85 vs 0.44 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.49 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.501
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.331
Trend U	0.000	0.011	0.82144	0.047	0.1424
Trend D	0.000	0.012	0.0511	0.85180	0.0919
Chop	0.022	0.000	0.2421	0.2522	0.4943

MRVL

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 5%Gap D 3%Trend U 50%Trend D 27%Chop 15%

Trend U

5.6days

persist 0.82 vs 0.50 rand

Trend D

5.3days

persist 0.81 vs 0.27 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.50 vs 0.15 rand

Gap days

41/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.082	0.041	0.6517	0.154	0.082
Gap D	0.071	0.132	0.132	0.477	0.203
Trend U	0.0615	0.036	0.82198	0.025	0.0717
Trend D	0.045	0.034	0.011	0.81103	0.1114
Chop	0.043	0.032	0.3122	0.129	0.5036

NSC

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 52%Trend D 33%Chop 14%

Trend U

14.0days

persist 0.93 vs 0.52 rand

Trend D

7.3days

persist 0.86 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.54 vs 0.14 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.001	0.000	0.93234	0.024	0.0513
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.034	0.86138	0.1118
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.1913	0.2718	0.5437

NSRGY

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 40%Trend D 41%Chop 18%

Trend U

6.8days

persist 0.85 vs 0.40 rand

Trend D

9.4days

persist 0.89 vs 0.41 rand

Chop

2.7days

persist 0.63 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.003	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.023	0.011	0.85163	0.036	0.0918
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.047	0.89177	0.0714
Chop	0.000	0.011	0.2017	0.1614	0.6355

NTR

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 0%Trend U 45%Trend D 33%Chop 22%

Trend U

5.8days

persist 0.83 vs 0.45 rand

Trend D

5.3days

persist 0.81 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.51 vs 0.21 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.011	0.83178	0.048	0.1328
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.047	0.81130	0.1423
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2931	0.1920	0.5154

NVDA

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 1%Trend U 48%Trend D 28%Chop 22%

Trend U

7.7days

persist 0.87 vs 0.48 rand

Trend D

4.5days

persist 0.78 vs 0.28 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.56 vs 0.22 rand

Gap days

8/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.251	0.251	0.502
Gap D	0.251	0.000	0.000	0.753	0.000
Trend U	0.001	0.001	0.87201	0.025	0.1023
Trend D	0.011	0.012	0.045	0.78105	0.1622
Chop	0.011	0.011	0.2224	0.2021	0.5660

ORIC

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 1%Trend U 39%Trend D 40%Chop 18%

Trend U

7.5days

persist 0.87 vs 0.39 rand

Trend D

5.2days

persist 0.81 vs 0.40 rand

Chop

1.8days

persist 0.46 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

17/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.364	0.556	0.091
Gap D	0.171	0.000	0.171	0.674	0.000
Trend U	0.023	0.011	0.87162	0.024	0.0917
Trend D	0.036	0.023	0.000	0.81155	0.1528
Chop	0.011	0.022	0.2521	0.2622	0.4639

PLTR

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 2%Trend U 52%Trend D 26%Chop 18%

Trend U

8.3days

persist 0.88 vs 0.52 rand

Trend D

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.26 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

20/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.738	0.273	0.000
Gap D	0.111	0.000	0.333	0.111	0.444
Trend U	0.024	0.024	0.88220	0.012	0.0820
Trend D	0.022	0.011	0.023	0.82104	0.1317
Chop	0.054	0.054	0.1815	0.2017	0.5244

SBUX

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 52%Trend D 31%Chop 16%

Trend U

7.8days

persist 0.87 vs 0.52 rand

Trend D

5.3days

persist 0.81 vs 0.31 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

4/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.501	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.001	0.000	0.87218	0.037	0.1024
Trend D	0.000	0.011	0.069	0.81121	0.1218
Chop	0.011	0.011	0.2721	0.2318	0.4737

SOUN

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 4%Gap D 3%Trend U 32%Trend D 37%Chop 24%

Trend U

4.5days

persist 0.78 vs 0.31 rand

Trend D

4.2days

persist 0.76 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.6days

persist 0.61 vs 0.23 rand

Gap days

36/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.051	0.000	0.459	0.459	0.051
Gap D	0.061	0.122	0.315	0.447	0.061
Trend U	0.057	0.035	0.78119	0.034	0.1218
Trend D	0.0610	0.047	0.011	0.76136	0.1424
Chop	0.011	0.022	0.1618	0.2023	0.6170

SPY

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Trend U 65%Trend D 22%Chop 13%

Trend U

12.1days

persist 0.92 vs 0.65 rand

Trend D

5.9days

persist 0.83 vs 0.21 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.48 vs 0.12 rand

Gap days

0/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.92288	0.027	0.0619
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.055	0.8389	0.1213
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3320	0.1811	0.4829

TRN

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Trend U 46%Trend D 34%Chop 19%

Trend U

7.9days

persist 0.87 vs 0.46 rand

Trend D

7.5days

persist 0.87 vs 0.34 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.57 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

4/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.004	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.011	0.000	0.87192	0.012	0.1125
Trend D	0.012	0.000	0.035	0.87142	0.0915
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2120	0.2019	0.5753

TSM

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 1%Trend U 59%Trend D 24%Chop 14%

Trend U

9.5days

persist 0.89 vs 0.58 rand

Trend D

6.1days

persist 0.84 vs 0.24 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.49 vs 0.14 rand

Gap days

12/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.866	0.000	0.141
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.201	0.603	0.201
Trend U	0.014	0.013	0.89254	0.012	0.0721
Trend D	0.022	0.022	0.033	0.8497	0.1012
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2819	0.2215	0.4934

UNP

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 42%Trend D 38%Chop 19%

Trend U

10.2days

persist 0.90 vs 0.42 rand

Trend D

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.38 rand

Chop

2.5days

persist 0.60 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

4/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.003	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.012	0.000	0.90183	0.013	0.0715
Trend D	0.011	0.011	0.036	0.84154	0.1221
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.1211	0.2825	0.6055

VERI

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 4%Gap D 3%Trend U 27%Trend D 50%Chop 17%

Trend U

3.7days

persist 0.73 vs 0.26 rand

Trend D

8.0days

persist 0.88 vs 0.50 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.55 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

33/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.173	0.061	0.448	0.285	0.061
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.406	0.538	0.071
Trend U	0.056	0.068	0.7393	0.022	0.1519
Trend D	0.037	0.036	0.012	0.88210	0.0615
Chop	0.032	0.000	0.2318	0.2016	0.5544

VMI

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 1%Trend U 60%Trend D 23%Chop 15%

Trend U

9.6days

persist 0.90 vs 0.60 rand

Trend D

5.9days

persist 0.83 vs 0.23 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.15 rand

Gap days

6/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.000	0.331
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.331
Trend U	0.001	0.001	0.90259	0.012	0.0926
Trend D	0.022	0.022	0.045	0.8393	0.0910
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3123	0.2216	0.4735

VRT

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 3%Gap D 3%Trend U 56%Trend D 24%Chop 14%

Trend U

9.6days

persist 0.90 vs 0.56 rand

Trend D

4.6days

persist 0.78 vs 0.24 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.14 rand

Gap days

27/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.071	0.000	0.507	0.365	0.071
Gap D	0.152	0.152	0.081	0.547	0.081
Trend U	0.014	0.014	0.90242	0.013	0.0617
Trend D	0.045	0.045	0.022	0.7890	0.1113
Chop	0.032	0.032	0.2618	0.1611	0.5236

VSTM

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 1%Trend U 47%Trend D 37%Chop 15%

Trend U

9.3days

persist 0.89 vs 0.47 rand

Trend D

8.0days

persist 0.88 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.54 vs 0.15 rand

Gap days

6/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.501
Gap D	0.000	0.251	0.251	0.502	0.000
Trend U	0.001	0.001	0.89200	0.024	0.0818
Trend D	0.011	0.012	0.035	0.88155	0.0814
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2418	0.2216	0.5440

WAB

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 62%Trend D 26%Chop 12%

Trend U

10.6days

persist 0.91 vs 0.62 rand

Trend D

6.2days

persist 0.84 vs 0.25 rand

Chop

1.6days

persist 0.36 vs 0.11 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.91270	0.025	0.0722
Trend D	0.011	0.000	0.056	0.84105	0.1013
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3922	0.2514	0.3620

ZC=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 483 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 50%Trend D 33%Chop 17%

Trend U

11.3days

persist 0.91 vs 0.49 rand

Trend D

8.0days

persist 0.87 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.4days

persist 0.59 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

2/ 483

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.012	0.000	0.91217	0.012	0.0717
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.023	0.87139	0.1117
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2017	0.2017	0.5949

ZS=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 483 bars

Trend U 46%Trend D 36%Chop 18%

Trend U

8.0days

persist 0.87 vs 0.46 rand

Trend D

6.4days

persist 0.84 vs 0.35 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.55 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

0/ 483

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.87195	0.037	0.0921
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.059	0.84145	0.1018
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2320	0.2219	0.5548

ZW=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 483 bars

Trend U 42%Trend D 40%Chop 18%

Trend U

8.0days

persist 0.88 vs 0.42 rand

Trend D

5.6days

persist 0.82 vs 0.41 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

0/ 483

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.88176	0.036	0.1019
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.048	0.82160	0.1427
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2118	0.3328	0.4740