Regime study · 2y daily bars · 20-SMA + 5% gaps

Markov Regime Dashboard

Rows are today's state, columns tomorrow's. Greener = more likely. Small number = how many times it happened.

UNP

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 42%Trend D 38%Chop 19%

Trend U

10.2days

persist 0.90 vs 0.42 rand

Trend D

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.38 rand

Chop

2.5days

persist 0.60 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

4/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.003	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.012	0.000	0.90183	0.013	0.0715
Trend D	0.011	0.011	0.036	0.84154	0.1221
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.1211	0.2825	0.6055

WAB

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 62%Trend D 26%Chop 12%

Trend U

10.6days

persist 0.91 vs 0.62 rand

Trend D

6.2days

persist 0.84 vs 0.25 rand

Chop

1.6days

persist 0.36 vs 0.11 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.91270	0.025	0.0722
Trend D	0.011	0.000	0.056	0.84105	0.1013
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3922	0.2514	0.3620

GBX

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 43%Trend D 37%Chop 19%

Trend U

7.7days

persist 0.87 vs 0.43 rand

Trend D

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.56 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.004	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.024	0.000	0.87180	0.025	0.0918
Trend D	0.000	0.011	0.035	0.84149	0.1222
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2119	0.2321	0.5652

TRN

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Trend U 46%Trend D 34%Chop 19%

Trend U

7.9days

persist 0.87 vs 0.46 rand

Trend D

7.5days

persist 0.87 vs 0.34 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.57 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

4/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.004	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.011	0.000	0.87192	0.012	0.1125
Trend D	0.012	0.000	0.035	0.87142	0.0915
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2120	0.2019	0.5753

CSX

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 57%Trend D 32%Chop 11%

Trend U

10.9days

persist 0.91 vs 0.56 rand

Trend D

9.6days

persist 0.90 vs 0.32 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.51 vs 0.11 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.012	0.000	0.91247	0.039	0.0514
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.035	0.90138	0.0711
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3619	0.137	0.5127

NSC

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 52%Trend D 33%Chop 14%

Trend U

14.0days

persist 0.93 vs 0.52 rand

Trend D

7.3days

persist 0.86 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.54 vs 0.14 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.001	0.000	0.93234	0.024	0.0513
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.034	0.86138	0.1118
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.1913	0.2718	0.5437

NVDA

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 1%Trend U 48%Trend D 28%Chop 22%

Trend U

7.7days

persist 0.87 vs 0.48 rand

Trend D

4.5days

persist 0.78 vs 0.28 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.56 vs 0.22 rand

Gap days

8/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.251	0.251	0.502
Gap D	0.251	0.000	0.000	0.753	0.000
Trend U	0.001	0.001	0.87201	0.025	0.1023
Trend D	0.011	0.012	0.045	0.78105	0.1622
Chop	0.011	0.011	0.2224	0.2021	0.5660

AMAT

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 2%Trend U 50%Trend D 29%Chop 16%

Trend U

6.0days

persist 0.83 vs 0.49 rand

Trend D

6.0days

persist 0.83 vs 0.29 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

24/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.759	0.172	0.081
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.253	0.587	0.172
Trend U	0.049	0.037	0.83199	0.012	0.0922
Trend D	0.011	0.012	0.057	0.83116	0.0913
Chop	0.032	0.043	0.2520	0.1713	0.5241

TSM

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 1%Trend U 59%Trend D 24%Chop 14%

Trend U

9.5days

persist 0.89 vs 0.58 rand

Trend D

6.1days

persist 0.84 vs 0.24 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.49 vs 0.14 rand

Gap days

12/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.866	0.000	0.141
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.201	0.603	0.201
Trend U	0.014	0.013	0.89254	0.012	0.0721
Trend D	0.022	0.022	0.033	0.8497	0.1012
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2819	0.2215	0.4934

MRVL

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 5%Gap D 3%Trend U 50%Trend D 27%Chop 15%

Trend U

5.6days

persist 0.82 vs 0.50 rand

Trend D

5.3days

persist 0.81 vs 0.27 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.50 vs 0.15 rand

Gap days

41/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.082	0.041	0.6517	0.154	0.082
Gap D	0.071	0.132	0.132	0.477	0.203
Trend U	0.0615	0.036	0.82198	0.025	0.0717
Trend D	0.045	0.034	0.011	0.81103	0.1114
Chop	0.043	0.032	0.3122	0.129	0.5036

AVGO

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 2%Trend U 50%Trend D 30%Chop 17%

Trend U

7.7days

persist 0.87 vs 0.50 rand

Trend D

5.2days

persist 0.81 vs 0.31 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.51 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

16/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.676	0.111	0.222
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.866	0.141
Trend U	0.024	0.013	0.87207	0.013	0.0921
Trend D	0.034	0.012	0.057	0.81119	0.1015
Chop	0.011	0.032	0.2318	0.2318	0.5141

VRT

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 3%Gap D 3%Trend U 56%Trend D 24%Chop 14%

Trend U

9.6days

persist 0.90 vs 0.56 rand

Trend D

4.6days

persist 0.78 vs 0.24 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.14 rand

Gap days

27/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.071	0.000	0.507	0.365	0.071
Gap D	0.152	0.152	0.081	0.547	0.081
Trend U	0.014	0.014	0.90242	0.013	0.0617
Trend D	0.045	0.045	0.022	0.7890	0.1113
Chop	0.032	0.032	0.2618	0.1611	0.5236

SBUX

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 52%Trend D 31%Chop 16%

Trend U

7.8days

persist 0.87 vs 0.52 rand

Trend D

5.3days

persist 0.81 vs 0.31 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

4/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.501	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.001	0.000	0.87218	0.037	0.1024
Trend D	0.000	0.011	0.069	0.81121	0.1218
Chop	0.011	0.011	0.2721	0.2318	0.4737

KC=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 484 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 40%Trend D 38%Chop 20%

Trend U

5.9days

persist 0.83 vs 0.40 rand

Trend D

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.54 vs 0.20 rand

Gap days

8/ 484

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.171	0.503	0.332	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.501
Trend U	0.024	0.011	0.83163	0.048	0.1020
Trend D	0.012	0.000	0.047	0.82150	0.1324
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2221	0.2423	0.5452

KDP

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 43%Trend D 39%Chop 18%

Trend U

8.2days

persist 0.88 vs 0.43 rand

Trend D

6.6days

persist 0.85 vs 0.38 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.011	0.011	0.88181	0.024	0.0919
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.035	0.85157	0.1223
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2018	0.2724	0.5246

NSRGY

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 40%Trend D 41%Chop 18%

Trend U

6.8days

persist 0.85 vs 0.40 rand

Trend D

9.4days

persist 0.89 vs 0.41 rand

Chop

2.7days

persist 0.63 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.003	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.023	0.011	0.85163	0.036	0.0918
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.047	0.89177	0.0714
Chop	0.000	0.011	0.2017	0.1614	0.6355

DNUT

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 1%Trend U 29%Trend D 52%Chop 16%

Trend U

5.4days

persist 0.82 vs 0.29 rand

Trend D

10.0days

persist 0.90 vs 0.52 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.15 rand

Gap days

13/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.625	0.000	0.383
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.603	0.402
Trend U	0.023	0.023	0.82115	0.012	0.1318
Trend D	0.024	0.000	0.024	0.90226	0.0717
Chop	0.011	0.032	0.2116	0.2821	0.4736

EWZ

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 0%Trend U 47%Trend D 37%Chop 16%

Trend U

17.2days

persist 0.94 vs 0.47 rand

Trend D

9.0days

persist 0.89 vs 0.37 rand

Chop

2.8days

persist 0.64 vs 0.16 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.94211	0.013	0.049
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.011	0.89159	0.1119
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.1612	0.2116	0.6449

HSY

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 34%Trend D 49%Chop 17%

Trend U

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.34 rand

Trend D

9.8days

persist 0.90 vs 0.49 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.54 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.501
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.011	0.000	0.84137	0.035	0.1220
Trend D	0.001	0.000	0.036	0.90210	0.0717
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2218	0.2420	0.5444

CC=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 484 bars

Gap U 2%Gap D 2%Trend U 34%Trend D 45%Chop 16%

Trend U

4.6days

persist 0.78 vs 0.34 rand

Trend D

7.8days

persist 0.87 vs 0.45 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.49 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

21/ 484

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.182	0.091	0.465	0.182	0.091
Gap D	0.000	0.101	0.303	0.606	0.000
Trend U	0.035	0.023	0.78131	0.035	0.1423
Trend D	0.012	0.025	0.025	0.87190	0.0716
Chop	0.032	0.000	0.2922	0.2015	0.4938

MDLZ

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Trend U 40%Trend D 47%Chop 14%

Trend U

6.9days

persist 0.85 vs 0.40 rand

Trend D

9.8days

persist 0.90 vs 0.47 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.13 rand

Gap days

0/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.85164	0.059	0.1019
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.0410	0.90202	0.0613
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2717	0.2214	0.5233

ADM

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 1%Trend U 47%Trend D 33%Chop 20%

Trend U

6.3days

persist 0.84 vs 0.47 rand

Trend D

5.1days

persist 0.80 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.48 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

3/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.331	0.672	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.84190	0.0410	0.1125
Trend D	0.000	0.012	0.035	0.80127	0.1524
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3331	0.1918	0.4845

BG

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 43%Trend D 36%Chop 21%

Trend U

7.4days

persist 0.86 vs 0.43 rand

Trend D

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.36 rand

Chop

2.3days

persist 0.57 vs 0.21 rand

Gap days

3/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.501
Trend U	0.000	0.011	0.86179	0.037	0.1020
Trend D	0.000	0.011	0.058	0.82140	0.1322
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2020	0.2222	0.5757

ZC=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 483 bars

Gap U 0%Trend U 50%Trend D 33%Chop 17%

Trend U

11.3days

persist 0.91 vs 0.49 rand

Trend D

8.0days

persist 0.87 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.4days

persist 0.59 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

2/ 483

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000	0.000
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.012	0.000	0.91217	0.012	0.0717
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.023	0.87139	0.1117
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2017	0.2017	0.5949

ZS=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 483 bars

Trend U 46%Trend D 36%Chop 18%

Trend U

8.0days

persist 0.87 vs 0.46 rand

Trend D

6.4days

persist 0.84 vs 0.35 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.55 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

0/ 483

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.87195	0.037	0.0921
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.059	0.84145	0.1018
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2320	0.2219	0.5548

ZW=F

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 483 bars

Trend U 42%Trend D 40%Chop 18%

Trend U

8.0days

persist 0.88 vs 0.42 rand

Trend D

5.6days

persist 0.82 vs 0.41 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

0/ 483

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.88176	0.036	0.1019
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.048	0.82160	0.1427
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2118	0.3328	0.4740

DE

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 0%Trend U 47%Trend D 34%Chop 19%

Trend U

5.8days

persist 0.83 vs 0.47 rand

Trend D

4.4days

persist 0.77 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.52 vs 0.19 rand

Gap days

2/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000	0.000
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.001	0.001	0.83189	0.0818	0.0819
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.0712	0.77125	0.1525
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2825	0.2018	0.5246

NTR

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 0%Trend U 45%Trend D 33%Chop 22%

Trend U

5.8days

persist 0.83 vs 0.45 rand

Trend D

5.3days

persist 0.81 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.1days

persist 0.51 vs 0.21 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001	0.000
Trend U	0.000	0.011	0.83178	0.048	0.1328
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.047	0.81130	0.1423
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2931	0.1920	0.5154

VMI

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 1%Trend U 60%Trend D 23%Chop 15%

Trend U

9.6days

persist 0.90 vs 0.60 rand

Trend D

5.9days

persist 0.83 vs 0.23 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.47 vs 0.15 rand

Gap days

6/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.000	0.331
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.331
Trend U	0.001	0.001	0.90259	0.012	0.0926
Trend D	0.022	0.022	0.045	0.8393	0.0910
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3123	0.2216	0.4735

LNN

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 1%Gap D 0%Trend U 44%Trend D 33%Chop 22%

Trend U

7.5days

persist 0.87 vs 0.44 rand

Trend D

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.33 rand

Chop

2.2days

persist 0.55 vs 0.21 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.331	0.000	0.672
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.002	0.000
Trend U	0.011	0.000	0.87183	0.013	0.1124
Trend D	0.011	0.012	0.034	0.82130	0.1422
Chop	0.011	0.000	0.2122	0.2425	0.5558

CTVA

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap D 0%Trend U 55%Trend D 27%Chop 18%

Trend U

10.5days

persist 0.91 vs 0.55 rand

Trend D

9.4days

persist 0.89 vs 0.27 rand

Chop

2.4days

persist 0.59 vs 0.17 rand

Gap days

1/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.001
Trend U	0.000	0.001	0.91238	0.013	0.0821
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.011	0.89118	0.1013
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.2824	0.1311	0.5950

MOS

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Gap U 0%Gap D 1%Trend U 37%Trend D 44%Chop 18%

Trend U

5.5days

persist 0.82 vs 0.37 rand

Trend D

6.6days

persist 0.85 vs 0.44 rand

Chop

2.0days

persist 0.49 vs 0.18 rand

Gap days

5/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.501
Gap D	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.331
Trend U	0.000	0.011	0.82144	0.047	0.1424
Trend D	0.000	0.012	0.0511	0.85180	0.0919
Chop	0.022	0.000	0.2421	0.2522	0.4943

SPY

2024-08-21 to 2026-07-24 · 482 bars

Trend U 65%Trend D 22%Chop 13%

Trend U

12.1days

persist 0.92 vs 0.65 rand

Trend D

5.9days

persist 0.83 vs 0.21 rand

Chop

1.9days

persist 0.48 vs 0.12 rand

Gap days

0/ 482

catalyst freq

Transition matrix P(next | current)

	Gap U	Gap D	Trend U	Trend D	Chop
Gap U	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Gap D	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Trend U	0.000	0.000	0.92288	0.027	0.0619
Trend D	0.000	0.000	0.055	0.8389	0.1213
Chop	0.000	0.000	0.3320	0.1811	0.4829

In-sample only. Trust cells with high counts; gap rows are usually thin. Hypotheses, not trade signals.